Which Breakouts Will Continue Next Season

Josh Hamilton had what you would call a “breakout” season in 2008, becoming one of the better outfielders in the game, but this season has been a let-down, also Carlos Quentin, has a breakout season, but not so much this year, which leads into the topic of who is the Josh Hamilton or Carlos Quentin of 09-10?

The candidates are Mark Reynolds, Aaron Hill, Jayson Werth,  and Kendry Morales.


Mark Reynolds has had a monster season by all standards smashing 44 home runs, when his previous career high was just 28, and has hit for a raw line of .253/.353/.550, and is tied for 15th in all of baseball with Kevin Youkilis in that stat. In the field he has been his usual self, posting a UZR/150 of -4.3, which is actually a career low by 1.1 over -3.2 from 2008. He has made just 19 errors to last year’s 34, nearly cutting that in half.  This season he has posted a VORP (hitting and fielding VORPs combined) of 21.6, to last year’s 20.4.

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Aaron Hill who was a first round draft pick all the way back in 2003, and has been good when healthy, but never this goHe has blossomed into what appears to be a lot like Jeff Kent, with 36 home runs this year, his previous career high you ask? 17.  He has put up an OBP of just .331, but never has had a high OBP,  and Cito Gaston’s hit your pitch mentality has worked wonders on him, as he is raking the ball and hitting home runs at a rate unprecedented for second baseman. Although he has all those home runs, the low OBP hurts his VORP as it is just 24.0. His defense is average at best, as his UZR/150 is -.8.

WERTHJayson Werth was a 4th outfielder for most of his career, at the end of last season Philadelphia handed him the right field job and he got hot, this year he has slugged 35 home runs.  His raw line is…268/.374/.503, which is a large improvement which has most certainly been fueled by that bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park, so it would not be the same in say Fenway Park, because a lot of his home runs are doubles, or outs in other places, but he will do this for as long as he is in a Phillies uni.


Kendry Morales had big shoes to fill, as when they lost K-Rod and Mark Texiera, they were in trouble, but boy has Morales come through. He has hit 34 home runs in his first year in the majors, while Texiera has hit 39, so Morales has been a huge lift for this team, which is going to the playoffs mostly on him. His raw line is .304/.353/.571, and is doing it at Angel Stadium…

So the question was” who is the next Josh Hamilton/Carlos Quentin? Well one thing we have to be able to say are home runs tend to correlate from season to season, unless a park is changed, like if you go from hitting in the New Yankee Stadium, to hitting in Citifield, you will see a drop off in home runs, but other than that, it will stay the same.  After some research I found that players who do not first see a rise in AVG the season before there SLUG improves, it will likely be a fluke, so looking at it, Werth, Hill, and Reynolds are all due for some “letdowns” next season, so do not draft them high in your fantasy leagues!

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